The Countertop Chronicles

"Run by a gun zealot who's too blinded by the NRA" - Sam Penney of

Sunday, October 31, 2004

Electing Predictions

Well, the Redskins lost.

Big deal. The Patriots also lost. And the Red Sox won. If those streaks ended this year, well then, the Redskin's prediction streak can end too.

In any case, its about time I made a prediction - not simply that Bush is gonna win, but by how much.

You might remember that earlier this year, in mid may in fact, I predicted a landslide victory for Bush. Well, here we are, two days out. A lots changed, but a lot has stayed the same.

Do I still think its going to be a landslide. Yes. Will it be as big of a landslide as Reagan Mondale? No, probably not. But it will be big - on the electoral vote side of things at least.

How big??? Try Bush 329-209, with him finishing 5-6 points up nationwide.

Here's my map, compliments of the LA Times.

Its not a perfect defeat, but it will do. And interestingly enough, if you check out Les Jone's compilation of predictions, you can see a strong Bush re-election trend forming.

There are also a bunch of other important elections going on. The Senate is up for grabs, and while the Democrats think the House might fall too, I just don't believe that for a second.

In the Senate, here are my predictions:

ALASKA Democrat Tony Knowles over Incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski. Governor's shouldn't appoint their unqualified daughters to the U.S. Senate.

CALIFORNIA Much to my chagrin, Democrat Barbara Boxer will be reelected.

COLORADO Republican Pete Coors is going to squeak by democrat AG Ken Salazar on Bush's coattails and keep this seat for the Republicans.

FLORIDA Republican Mel Martinez is also going to squeak by on Bush's coattails to pick up an additional Senate seat and compensate for the loss of Alaska.

GEORGIA Republican Johnny Isakson isn't as loved as retiring Democrat Zell Miller, but he will still have an easy time picking up another Senate seat for the Republicans.

ILLINOIS Retiring Republican Pete Fitzgerald is a loser. Thats why he decided to retire rather than stick it out and go down in defeat. Nevertheless, he would have stood a better chance of defending this republican seat than the carpetbagger Alan Keyes. Barak Osama will have the easiest win of any freshman senator, except perhaps Johnny Isakson. By the way, that means the Democrats pick up an additional seat.

LOUISIANA I have no idea what's going to happen in Louisiana. Sure, Republican David Vitter will probably win on election day, but I don't think he will have a majority of the votes. Under Louisiana's weird system, that throws the election into a runoff which will likely pit him against Democratic Congressman Chris John. My gut tells me that Chris John will win the run off. He's a good guy with a head on his shoulders. About as good a man as you could expect a Democrat to be. I just wish he were a Republican.

MISSOURI For once, Kit Bond will have no trouble defending his seat this time. Thank John Kerry and gay marriages.

NORTH CAROLINA I think Richard Burr is going to shock some people here and beat former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles for John Edward's seat..

OKLAHOMA Oklahoma is too close to call, but I'll do it anyway. Republican Tom Coburn, for all his problems and difficulties this election is going to win.

PENNSYLVANIA Republican Senator Arlen Specter will be spending the next six years in Washington, D.C.

SOUTH CAROLINA The South Carolina schools are in too bad a condition and these folks are going to have too tough a time voting for a liberal Democrat. Republican Jim DeMint is going to add another seat to the Republican tally.

SOUTH DAKOTA Sing it now. With passion. For Tom Dachle.
Na Na Na Na, Hey Hey Hey, Bye Bye.
John Thune is going to send D.C. Resident and South Dakota Senator and Minority Leader Tom Daschle back to his Georgetown mansion.

WASHINGTON Washington is another state, like California, that won't be missed when the big one hits and it slides into the big lake off the West coast. Incumbent Sen. Patty Murray, friend and supporter of Osama Bin Laden, will easily win reelection.

WISCONSIN Wouldn't it be funny. Yes it would and I think it might happen. Once again, Bush's coattails are going to sweep a Republican into office. In this case, Republican Tim Michels is going to send Russ Feingold to the unemployment line, where his stupid law will prevent him from complaining about the conditions.

For those keeping score, I'm predicting the Democrats taking over two currently held Republican seats, while the Republicans take 6 from the communists, for a net increase of 4.


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